Wednesday, October 12, 2011

EU Scenarios Bleak

This October promises to be hot: Not so much in Celcius (or Fahrenheit for that matter) as in social (in)justice emotions and revolutionary urges.

It is enough to see what's tweeting under #GlobalRevolution to realize that October 15 is going to be messy:

While Germany is holding off the rescue package to Greece, unemployment numbers in Spain refuse to shrink, Italian debt ratings go down nearly as fast as Belorussian roubles, and students protest against educational cuts, big businesses ought to get pensive as to what their scenarios are should good old Europe follow the fate of that large boat on having encountered the iceberg. When push comes to shove, the companies will have to act quickly: secure credits and cash flows, manage inflation and find ways to pay the suppliers and workers.

RBS came up with 5 probable scenarios (four of them involve Greece default by December), the Dutch government did some scenario planning too, and according to the former CEO of Volvo, “It would surprise me if any well-run company were not preparing itself for the worst scenarios, however remote those may be”.

The Economist baptized the situation "Under the Volcano". Surely, they need to see their magazine, and drama sells well, but maybe what we are about to witness in the area of EU economics in the next couple of months is going to be more spectacular and far more troublesome than the eruption of that tongue-twisting Eyjafjallajokull in small and distant Iceland, which this time might turn out to be least affected.

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